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UFC 143 Predictions: Diaz vs. Condit Betting Odds
by Scott Johnson - 1/31/2012

After UFC 143 a new name will move to the top of the welterweight ranks as former Strikeforce champion Nick Diaz (-225 on odds from Bovada) battles former WEC Champion Carlos Condit (+175) for the UFC interim-Welterweight Championship.

Georges St-Pierre has dominated the division since April 2008, with six successful title defense. However, with the French-Canadian injured and unable to compete until presumably late 2012 the promotion is looking to fill the void atop the division.

Odds are available for all 13 bouts on the card, and below are my favorite plays in the UFC Fight Night 143 edition of Prime Picks. Dillashaw (-200) In the main event. UFC 143 Diaz vs Condit Odds, Favorites, Free Picks, Tips and Expert Predictions - UFC 143 Diaz vs Condit Free Bets from UFC Vegas Handicapping Expert Eric Moore from the National Sports Advisors.

Diaz and Condit stack up evenly; each has compiled 13 victories by knockout, each has incredible cardio, and they are both quite skilled on the ground. Condit has the edge in submission victories, 13-8, but Diaz is a BJJ black belt compared to Condit’s purple belt.

If the fight remains standing, the edge in overall power goes to Condit. The “Natural Born Killer” has the capacity to stop a fight with one punch or knee, but Diaz’ ability to overwhelm his opponent with an enormous amount of strikes is equally as dangerous.

Nick goes off the chart at 6.22 strikes per minute, and he logged an outrageous total of 257 successful strikes against BJ and he has surpassed the 100 strikes landed mark nine times in his last 11 fights. Condit has some extraordinary numbers as well; he has topped 150 strikes against both Rory MacDonald and Jake Ellenberger, and in his final WEC appearance he hit the 209 mark against Hiromitsu Miura.

Diaz’ boxing is extraordinary; he attacks from a variety of angles, effectively targets the body, gets excellent extension and is most successful when his opponent is back-pedaling towards the cage. Diaz attacks with long range jabs and hooks, but he uses his kicks sparingly.

Condit implements a superman punch and front kicks to dictate the range, and he has power in both hands as he showed by knocking out Dan Hardy with a left hook. He mixes up his combinations: changing levels and working in his kicks. He has a heavy body kick and will also go unorthodox, attempting a spinning elbow and a jumping knee with regularity.

Equally as impressive is how difficult these guys are to knockout. Both have shown excellent chin. And although they have been knocked down in fights, their ability to recover from a punch that would knock out most fighters is remarkable.

Diaz has a tendency to absorb a high volume of strikes at 3.16 per minute while Condit’s opponents average only 1.66 strikes in the same time span. This style of taking punishment to deliver has worked in the past for the former Strikeforce champ, but there will be some significant differences with his next opponent.

At 6-foot tall and with a reach of 76”; Diaz’s has had the physical advantages over his last six opponents who stood an average of 5-foot-8 with a reach of 72”. But Condit will match Nick in reach and stands 2 inches taller, which will take away one of Diaz’s key advantages.

Both men have excellent conditioning, which has been a key aspect of their success. But a number of Nick Diaz’ opponents had known issues with poor cardio and began to fade early when Nick turned up his intensity. Conversely, Condit has shown the ability to go deep into rounds, competing against adversaries that didn’t have a drop off in performance.

This is a difficult prediction, but it comes down to how each man compares to the previous opponents of their UFC 143 adversary. Diaz has been able to exploit significant advantages in multiple categories; reach, cardio, striking, and grappling, but this won’t be the case against Condit.

On multiple occasions, Diaz’ opponents have had success early, but because of the aforementioned disadvantages they weren’t able to maintain their performance level long enough to defeat the Stockton native. Despite a 6-inch reach disadvantage, K.J. Noons was able to push Diaz for the full five rounds and Penn actually out-landed Diaz 49-39 in the opening round, with Nick not taking control until B.J. began to tire.

Diaz’ history of taking punishment until his adversary breaks will cost him here against an opponent with the power, cardio and overall abilities of Condit. Condit has the power and skill set to hurt Diaz and the cardio to maintain the pressure when he gets him hurt. So the pick here is the underdog Condit to defeat Diaz.

Carlos Condit at +175 provides an excellent return and should be the focal point of the weekend’s investments. A wager on the ‘over/under’ or method of how the fight will end is a big risk. Both men are proven finishers, but are difficult to finish and each has high submission and knockout victories, so there is no clear indication of how this bout could end.

If you want to avoid backing one of these fighters and simply take advantage of their combined talent levels, consideration should be given to placing a bet on this fight for Fight of the Night if your sportsbook makes this type of wager available.

Whether betting on Condit or the Fight of the Night, sit back and enjoy a matchup that is being projected as an early Fight of the Year candidate. And don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC 143 predictions here at Doc’s Sports.

Middleweight champion Robert Whittaker (20-4) will face interim titleholder Israel Adesanya (17-0) in Saturday's main event of UFC 243, and at least one top-level MMA coach said it could be 'one of the greatest fights we've seen.'

As of Thursday morning, Caesars Sportsbook has Adesanya as a slight -125 favorite and Whittaker at -105.

Both men are coming off spectacular outings. Adesanya won the interim title by beating Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 236 in April in what was one of the most exciting UFC fights in years. Whittaker has not fought since defeating Yoel Romero in a grueling battle at UFC 225 in June 2018.

ESPN spoke to some of the top coaches in the sport to break down one of the UFC's best 185-pound fights ever.

Brandon Gibson, JacksonWink MMA

I'm curious to see how Whittaker looks after more than a one-year layoff. I believe in Whittaker's boxing and his durability. His style, I think, does very well in a five-round fight. He's able to grind, he's able to find the takedowns, he's good against the fence. And he has a lot of pressure. So I think those are kind of his keys to victory -- being able to push the pace, pressure and control the distance.

Israel is one of those guys, man, if he gets space, he's gonna explode. I think you've gotta take some of the explosiveness out of Israel early on. Where Israel's keys are is keeping it at distance, keeping it at kicking range. Set up the head kick and being able to control the pace enough that he'll be able to explode all 25 minutes.

I think Kelvin made some critical errors, shooting some of the takedowns when he had Israel hurt in the fourth round. I think Whittaker probably has a higher fight game IQ. The thing about the Gastelum fight is Israel's cardio was a little suspect at times. He would explode and explode and explode and then drain himself. I know it was a grueling, five-round fight and he was able to come out in the fifth round strong. And that was all heart. I think if he slows down like that against Whittaker, he's gonna find himself in big trouble. He'll get taken down and pounded out or just outboxed on the fence.

I'm a fan of Israel. I want to see him win. I'd love to see a matchup with him and [JacksonWink's Jon] Jones one day. I'll be cheering for Israel and I hope he can keep his range and everybody can see an explosive highlight. Whittaker had trouble against 'Wonderboy' [Stephen Thompson]. Not that Wonderboy and Israel are the same style, and that was a long time go. But fast, rangy, explosive fighters have given [Whittaker] some trouble in the past. Adesanya might be the greatest striker in the game right now. I'd love to see him go off and create something.

I'm gonna go with Israel. I'm gonna go with an Israel KO early on -- maybe second round.

Mike Brown, American Top Team

This might be one of the toughest fights to call or figure out before it happens, more than many other high-level fights. It's two of the highest fight IQs in the game. One guy has length and high-level kickboxing and feinting and setting traps, while another guy has some of the best footwork and varied attacks in the game. Honestly, it's really tough to figure out how it's gonna go. It's a strange one.

I think Whittaker will [stand] with him. Whittaker will stay out of striking range, so he can't be hit. Because he's shorter, he's developed a style where he's out of range. It doesn't matter what you're doing -- he's gone. He's gonna blitz in with his blitz-style footwork. He has many different combos that he uses, so you have to guess which one he's using when he comes in. He covers distance really quickly. Then when he's done, he's out of there. He's been striking with all the best guys. He can strike with anybody. I don't think it's about him trying to take somebody down.

Ufc 143 Predictions

Whittaker has to vary his attacks greatly. He can't be predictable in any way. He has a lot of weapons, he just has to make sure he stays unpredictable and attacks with different attacks all the time. If he becomes predictable, Adesanya will find the pattern and hurt him. I think that will be a real key.

Ufc Fight Night 143 Predictions

Gun to my head, I would have to go with Bobby Knuckles [Whittaker]. But it's a weird one, because it's so hard to ever bet against a guy who is such a great fighter like Adesanya. He's incredible. To me, it's 50-50. I would never bet on that fight.

Ray Longo, LAW MMA

I think to me it's a matter of pacing. Whittaker has got the faster pace. Adesanya is more of a sharpshooter -- he can pick you off at any time.

Gastelum is awesome, I love the guy. But I think he made a couple of technical errors in his fight [with Adesanya]. He could have finished him, but went for the takedown, which I think was a huge error. Whittaker has angles, he scrambles good. I think that's the difference in the fight, the different angles and the pacing that the guy is gonna provide.

I think Whittaker is 100 percent gonna stand with him, but I think he'll mix it up. I think he'll mix it up at the right times, whereas that's where Gastelum made the mistake.

Whittaker definitely has to be careful with Adesanya. Adesanya has the kickboxing experience. I think if you stand in front of him, it'll be a problem. If he gets to the point where it's like at a standstill, like he's point sparring him, [Adesanya] will definitely win that battle. He can slip and rip, he's unorthodox. If [Adesanya] gets him hurt, he'll take his time and pick him apart that way.

But I think Whittaker is gonna give him angles, he's gonna be in and out and he's light on his feet for a 185-pounder. I'm gonna pick Whittaker with this fight.

Javer Mendez, American Kickboxing Academy

I'm thinking Whittaker will try to make it more of an MMA fight to be successful. Adesanya has to make it a Muay Thai or kickboxing style of fight in order for him to get the win. I don't really know who will win.

If I had to pick, I'd say Whittaker using an MMA style to win a decision, blending striking, wrestling and Muay Thai. He won't be able to do it against Adesanya with any single discipline.

Marc Montoya, Factory X

You've got Whittaker, who looks and has shown to be more well-rounded in MMA. Then you've got Adesanya, who is this generation's Anderson Silva. If you look back at what Anderson Silva was able to do, the question is can Adesanya do that? I think he answered some big questions in his last fight -- really, his last couple of fights -- when he was able to defend the takedown like he did. And when he did get taken down, he attacked immediately. That right there, to me as a coach, brought a smile to my face. His coaches and him were like, listen, you're such a good striker, you're gonna get put on your back. You've gotta be nasty and attack off your back quickly to create space or even get a submission.

Stylistically, one of the things I know about Whittaker is his stature is not huge for the division, but I think it's perfect for 185. He's built a lot like my fighter, Ian Heinisch. They're not super tall, but they're thick kids and they're well-rounded. They're kind of a hybrid for that division and I feel like that body type is very successful at '85.

Adesanya being so long and such an amazing striker, you know what he wants to do. He wants to keep it on the feet, keep his length, find opportunities and eventually catch him. The biggest question I have for Whittaker is will he consistently try to put Adesanya on his back?

I think that's the big question. I think Whittaker can strike with Adesanya -- I don't think he's outclassed there. If it were a kickboxing match, Adesanya would probably win, but Whittaker is not outclassed.

If I had to be $100 of my money, I'm gonna say Whittaker. I think he's gotta go in there and blend well, use his striking to occupy Adesanya and be offensive in his takedowns.

Kenny Johnson, Black House

Adesanya proved to have amazing hips, not getting taken down by Kelvin. Whittaker proved to be the same way against Romero. Who would have ever thought he'd be winning the wrestling against Romero? I would have bet anything that Whittaker would have ate Romero up in the wrestling, and Whittaker won the wrestling, which shocked me.

[Adesanya and Whittaker] are both tough as nails. Both have great striking. The hearts they've shown in their fights, they have the ability to go the distance. If it plays out like their fights usually do, it could be one of the greatest fights we've seen. I think Adesanya, his length is unbelievable. It's kind of like Anderson [Silva]-esque. They both have great takedown defense. I think we're gonna be looking at a fight that's on the feet unless someone gets knocked down.

This one is hard, because [my team] never had to fight Whittaker, so I never had to spend a lot of time looking at him. When [my fighter] Anderson [Silva] fought Adesanya, it's a different style game, because it's Anderson fighting him. They have the same crazy, weirdo s---.

I just can't wait to see it. It's two totally different looking fighters, each come at each other differently. I could see the fight going the distance and being a grinder, kind of how the Kelvin fight went with Adesanya. Whittaker is more like Kelvin than Anderson. But I don't know, man. I'm glad I don't have to be in anyone's corner and I can just kick back and watch as a fan.

Part of me wants to say Whittaker, because he's the veteran and he's been deep in all these things. The other part says Adesanya, because he's the youngster coming up, he's different. Here's the coin flip -- Adesanya.

Eric Albarracin, coach of Henry Cejudo, Patricio Freire, Paulo Costa, among others

I think that probably the more well-rounded is Whittaker. He's proven that. Really impressed what he could do with Yoel, even though I thought he lost that last fight. But he's proven himself, and once you get over that hump, you're at another level. I've seen that with Henry Cejudo. Once he beat Demetrious [Johnson] there's no stopping him now. You get supercharged. Once that confidence kicks in, you don't have doubt. That helps Whittaker.

However, I like Israel's striking and I know he's training a lot of wrestling. Once you're not afraid of getting taken down anymore, your striking gets better. I think the fact that Israel is training a lot of wrestling and the fact that he's a superb striker, comes from kickboxing, I think he's gonna win. I think he's putting it all together. I think he's young in this game and he's still getting better. He has some intangibles that Robert Whittaker doesn't have, as far as length, he's taller. He's got better kicks, he's more dynamic on his feet.

I like Israel, because he talks a lot of s---, too. Personally, we have stake in this because Paulo Costa and I are flying to Australia. Paulo will be there to watch the winner and that's gonna be something. If Israel wins, you know he's gonna call out Paulo. Paulo wants to jump the cage. Paulo wants to get in his face.

I think Israel wins. I'm thinking knockout. A lot of it is Whittaker has been out so long. One of those question-mark kicks ... KO. I'm thinking that. We want to fight Israel, because we think he can sell the fight better. And I think Paulo beats any one of them.