Trump Impeachment Odds
Because the odds of a conviction are long, a sweeping impeachment hearing that fully airs everything known about the insurrection is crucial. The truth doesn’t have multiple sides, and Trump. Crunching the numbers, we arrive at a long expression that gives us the odds of a Trump impeachment where the only variable is p. Suppose there was even just a 1% chance of a Republican crossing. With Democrats proceeding with an impeachment case against the President, betting odds suggest that time isn't on their side with Trump at -300 to retain his title of President by the time January. Trump impeachment odds on Predictit. Ladbrokes odds on Trump impeachment or leaving office early: 40 percent. Ladbrokes combines the question of Trump being impeached and leaving office early. The Trump impeachment odds are highly topical and can be viewed in real time, through the Betfair Exchange. With just over a year until the 2020 election, Donald Trump is in turmoil. Since Nancy Pelosi announced an impeachment inquiry, the President has been beset by even more scandal than usual. His chance of re-election is falling, from 50%.
Will Trump Resign?
This is an important distinction. It remains very hard to see 23 Republican Senators convicting their president. Trump’s base remains loyal. However, a few more weeks of this terrible news cycle, which would be elevated in the case of a Senate trial, and vulnerable incumbents may start to panic. Most notably Senate leader Mitch McConnell is facing a serious challenge in Kentucky.
Pressure could, theoretically at least, be brought to bear. The case of the last president to leave office early – Richard Nixon – is pertinent. ‘Tricky Dicky’ never faced the Senate trial – he resigned, handing power to his Vice President Gerald Ford, and duly received a pardon.
Whether he listens or not, Trump must be receiving similar legal advice. As Robert Mueller made clear, he is not immune from prosecution after leaving office. Asides from the particular allegations that led to impeachment, dozens of criminal and congressional investigations are ongoing, for which Trump could yet be liable. The implications of the Russia investigation have not fully played out yet – Roger Stone’s trial in November will likely release information from redacted sections of the Mueller Report.
Donald Trump is no longer in office, but for the fake news media, he might as well be.
And that goes beyond the cable news model, too.
If you have one of the network TV streaming services like Hulu – or any of the other politicized streaming apps like Amazon Prime or the free Pluto offerings on your smart TV – every time you log in you’ll see Trump featured prominently in some banner, frowning as if desperate, with the words “Trump Impeachment” branded above him.
Of course, it’s not Citizen Trump who’s desperate – it’s the networks.
With news ratings crashing since Dementia Joe was installed as President, this newest attack on Trump and his supporters isn’t just beating a dead horse, it’s milking a dead cow.
Of course, it is a thing, and there areVegas Presidential impeachment oddsavailable for the circus sideshow.
However, only one site is offering any betting lines right now: Bovada.
Typically, Bovada tends to shy away from political props, but this time around, they’re on the ball with Trump impeachment chances.
Actually, that’s not quite accurate. Trump has already been impeached again.
What you’re betting on here are Trump conviction odds, or whether or not the Senate will cast at least 67 votes against him.
This is questionably constitutional and could be a play for relevancy if the votes are there, as it’d go to the Supreme Court in a protracted case that would give the failing news media another two years or so of solvency before they can coalesce around their next bogeyman.
But in the meantime, such a vote would prevent The Donald from running for President again.
At any rate, here are the current odds:
2021 Trump Conviction Odds
Via Bovada Sportsbook
How many US Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?
- 55 Or 56 +180
- 53 Or 54 +210
- 51 Or 52 +800
- 57 Or 58 +800
- 50 Or Fewer +1600
- 67 Or More +1600
- 59 Or 60 +2000
- 61 Or 62 +5000
- 63 Or 64 +10000
- 65 Or 66 +10000
Now, most of you – like most of us – probably think there’s no chance that the upper chamber will have the votes to convict. The Senate odds really don’t seem to be there.
The Democrats would need to find 17 GOP Senators to make it happen, and while there are plenty of RINOs champing at the bit to make sure “Trumpism” (i.e. America-First populism) dies a quick death, there may not be 17 such career pols willing to commit career suicide over the issue.
Just ask House Republican Liz Cheney of Wyoming.
Trump Impeachment Odds Paddy Power
That piece of work is laboring under the delusion that Trump “does not have a role as a leader of our party going forward.”
House Rep. Dan Crenshaw (TX), who just months ago was on a meteoric rise within the party for backing Trump, is backing Cheney. With just one eye, perhaps he can be forgiven for failing to see his constituency more clearly.
Regardless, it’ll certainly be interesting to see what happens, but there’s very little chance the cynical ploy will get anywhere.
That’s especially true considering the fact that the leaders of this sham are themselves guilty of explicitly instigating actual criminal riots across the nation over the summer months of 2020.
Here’s what Trump said January 6, per Newsweek (which isn’t remotely a Trump ally):
“I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard. Today we will see whether Republicans stand strong for [the] integrity of our elections, but whether or not they stand strong for our country, our country.
Our country has been under siege for a long time, far longer than this four-year period… If they don’t fight, we have to primary the hell out of the ones that don’t fight. You primary them. We’re going to let you know who they are.”
Apparently, advocating for the lawful assembly of “peaceful” and “patriotic” Americans while asking them to make their voices heard at the ballot box is now seditious action and constitutes the commission of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
Sure.
Now, contrast Trump’s statement with those of his chief antagonists in office, all of whom are involved in his second impeachment and potential removal.
One of them is even the current Vice President – and future President (like next week) – of the United States.
Keep in mind, these comments were made during the Antifa/BLM riots that burned through dozens of cities in 2020, causing more than $2 billion in damages and resulting in the murders, rapes, and assaults of hundreds of innocent people.
- Ayanna Pressley: “There needs to be unrest in the streets.”
- Maxine Waters: “If you see anybody from that [Trump] cabinet in a restaurant, in a department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and create a crowd and you push back on them and tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere.”
- Nancy Pelosi: “I just don’t know why there aren’t uprisings all over the country. Maybe there will be.”
- Kamala Harris: “Protestors should not let up.”
This is basic projection and deflection.
The problem for the Democrats, of course, is that it’s also going to be part of Donald Trump’s defense, and these morons are too stupid to realize it.
But all that said, we’re genuinely unsure how the vote will go.
The Republicans, by and large, appear very interested in getting back to the uniparty model, and it’s not out of the question that they could vote to convict in large enough numbers to actually pull it off.
But in the end, it won’t matter.
The Republican Party is only the Republican Party inside the National Guard-protected Halls of Congress.
Trump Impeachment Odds In Senate
Out here in the real world, it’s Donald J. Trump and about 80 million of his followers.
Trump Impeachment Odds 2018
Sources: The Hill, Newsweek