Ncaa Longshot Picks
Naturally, the four No. 1 seeds (Duke at 1-2, Gonzaga at 6-5, Virginia at 5-4 and North Carolina at 17-10 as of Wednesday at VegasInsider.com) are strong favorites to advance to the NCAA Tournament’s Final Four.
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And the quartet of No. 2 seeds (Kentucky at 13-5 and Michigan State, Michigan and Tennessee at 3-1) were right behind.
But if you feel like taking a gamble (and we know you do), here are four long(er)shots – one from each region – worth, well, a shot:
Hey, this region has the Blue Devils and Spartans at the top so why not shoot for the moon?
The Bruins have the size (6-11 Will Muszynski, 6-8 Dylan Winder), shooting (50 percent) and scheme (nation-best 19.7 assists per game) to do some damage in the main bracket after advancing out of the First Four on Tuesday night.
VCU followed that same path (First Four to Final Four) in 2011, and of the five double-digit seeds to have made it to the Final Four since the tourney expanded to 64 teams in 1985, four were No. 11 seeds, including the just-mentioned Rams eight years ago and Loyola-Chicago only last season.
Also consider: Virginia Tech (10-1)
Coached by the highly-regarded Eric Musselman, the senior-laden Wolf Pack returns the same roster that lost by a point to Loyola-Chicago in the Sweet 16 a year ago, and now is back as a seventh seed for the second straight season.
Sure there are concerns about the health of leading rebounder and second-leading scorer Jordan Caroline and the team’s stumbles down the stretch (three losses in its last eight games), but if you’re going to take chance, why not take one on one of the most experienced and athletic teams in the tourney that has already proven it can make a March run?
Also consider: Buffalo (16-1), Florida State (6-1)
This longshot admittedly hinges on a longshot: Having multi-talented senior Dean Wade back from the nagging foot injury that kept him out of the Big 12 tourney and has him listed as doubtful for the Big Dance.
Ncaa Longshot Picks
Even without Wade, the Big 12 regular-season co-champs still have plenty of talent and are anchored by a stingy defense that allows only 59.1 points per contest. Still a run to Minneapolis is a much longer shot without their leading rebounder and second-leading scorer.
Also consider: Villanova (10-1), Cincinnati (15-1), Oregon (22-1)
The team that did win the Big 12 tourney is guard-oriented, high-scoring Iowa State, which possesses the nation’s ninth-most efficient offense, according to analytics guru Ken Pomeroy.
The road out of their half of the Midwest bracket is filled with potential formidable roadblocks in third-seeded Houston and second-seeded Kentucky, but if the Cyclones survive that, you’ll be feeling rather well about your longshot Midwest pick winning one more game – even if it is against top-seeded North Carolina.
Also consider: Houston (19-4), Auburn (17-2), Wofford (15-1)
Georgia vs. Alabama
Saturday, October 17, 2020 – 8:00pm ET Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
TV: CBS
Teams
● (3) Georgia Bulldogs: 3-0
● (2) Alabama Crimson Tide: 3-0
Stakes of the Matchup
Of all the regular season games between all 130 FBS schools during this season, Saturday night’s game between Georgia and Alabama is going to be the most consequential. Both Alabama and Georgia are perennial national championship contenders. In College Football, typically you need to either go undefeated and/or lose only one game to make the four-team playoffs. Alabama has made the playoffs four times over the last five seasons. In 2016 and 2018, Alabama won the national championship. Georgia has been a perennial contender as well as they have won the SEC East three years in a row and lost to Alabama in the 2018 national championship by only a field goal.
Regardless of what happens in this game, both Georgia and Alabama are likely to meet in the SEC championship game in December. Currently Alabama is the favorite to win the SEC conference title at -305 odds at BetOnline, while Georgia has the second lowest odds at +250. Alabama plays in the SEC West which is weaker than usual this year due to both Auburn and LSU not doing as well as projected. Georgia plays in the SEC East which other than Florida, contains no real threats. Whichever team losses Saturday night’s game is likely to end the regular season with that being their only loss.
How Georgia and Alabama Will Matchup
The Georgia Defense has arguably been the best defense so far among all 130 FBS teams. One of their best assets as a team is their rushing defense which is currently
Ncaa Longshot Picks Odds
giving up only 1.49 yards per carry, the lowest in the NCAA. In a schedule with only SEC teams, Georgia’s statistics are not inflated by playing non-conference cupcakes to start the season.
Georgia started their season with wins against a surprisingly strong Arkansas Razorbacks team, the 7th ranked Auburn Tigers, and the 14th ranked Tennessee Volunteers. What makes those wins even more impressive is how well the Georgia Rushing defense did. Against an Auburn team that is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, the Georgia defense limited them to 1.8 yards per carry. Most impressively in their last game, Georgia limited Tennessee to -1 rushing yards. The Georgia rushing defense was so good against Tennessee that I as a sports handicapper had more rushing yards this last weekend than Tennessee had.
For Alabama to win, it will come down to how well Alabama running back Najee Harris can do against the Georgia rushing defense. Harris is an early Heisman contender as he currently is at +1600 odds to win the Heisman. Harris is currently averaging 6.7 rushing yards per carry and he comes from a program with a history of producing great running backs. Most impressively in only three games this season, Harris already has 10 touchdowns. If Harris does well against Georgia, then Alabama is likely to win. However, if the Georgia defense can contain Harris then the game will be close, and Georgia might end up with a win.
Prediction
In the week leading up to the Alabama game, every tv talking head is going to have an opinion. Most sports tv personalities go with the flow and do not challenge the conventional wisdom. As a result, I believe that sports media is going to overwhelmingly back Alabama against Georgia. Alabama certainly should be favored against Georgia based on their past performance, but Georgia presents matchup problems for Alabama that cannot be ignored.
That is why I for one of my best NCAA picks this week, am backing the Georgia Bulldogs as 6.5 point underdogs against Alabama. I think that the Georgia Rushing defense will contain Alabama running back Najee Harris and that will result in Georgia taking advantage of an Alabama defense which gave up 48 points in their last game against Ole Miss. I think Georgia will win Saturday’s game as well, which is why I will be backing the Georgia moneyline as well, once those odds have been posted.
College Football Pick: Georgia Bulldogs +6.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline review)